CONTENTS
Acknowledgement v
Abstract vi
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Need for the Study 1
1.2 Objective of the Study 1
1.3 Scope of Work 1
1.4 Study Site 2
1.4.1 Negative Externality of this demand 3
1.4.2 Positive Externality of this demand 3
1.4.3 Problems faced by the area in and around the area in the immediate vicinity 3
1.4.4 Effect of the Upcoming Ahmedabad Metro on the Bus Terminal 6
1.5 Public Private Partnership (PPP) in Bus Terminal Development 8
2. Case Studies 9
2.1 Amritsar Case Study 9
2.1.1 Salient features of the PPP model bring implemented 9
2.1.2 Advantages of this model 10
2.1.3 Disadvantages of this model 10
2.1.4 Project Features 10
2.1.5 Risk Sharing Framework 11
2.1.5.1 Conditions Precedent Stage 12
2.1.5.2 Construction Stage 12
2.1.5.3 Operation & Maintenance Stage 13
2.1.5.4 Other Risks 14
2.1.6 Positives of the project 14
2.1.7 Drawbacks of the project 14
2.2 Alambagh Bus Terminal Case Study, Lucknow 15
2.2.1 Salient Features of the Model 15
2.2.2 Advantages of this model 16
2.2.3 Disadvantages of this model 16
2.2.4 Project Features 16
2.2.5 Risk Sharing Framework 17
2.2.5.1 Conditions Precedent Stage 18
2.2.5.2 Construction Stage 18
2.2.5.3 Operation & Maintenance Stage 19
2.2.5.4 Other Risks 19
2.2.6 Positives of the Project 20
2.2.7 Drawbacks of the project 20
2.3 Ranip Bus Terminal Case Study, Ahmedabad 20
2.3.1 Salient Features of the Model 20
2.3.2 Project Features 21
2.3.3 Risk Sharing Framework 22
2.3.3.1 Construction Stage 22
2.3.3.2 Operation & Maintenance Stage 23
2.3.3.3 Other Risks 23
2.3.4 Positives of the Project 24
2.3.5 Drawbacks of the project 24
2.4 Summary of the Case Studies 24
3. Schematic Design of the facility 26
3.1 Scope of the design 26
3.2 Space Allocation 26
3.2.1 Parking Space 26
3.2.2 Office Space and Retail Spaces 27
3.2.3 Budget Hotel Space 27
3.2.4 Bus Terminal Space 27
3.3 Space Calculations 28
3.4 Schematic Drawings 28
4 Financial Feasibility Analysis of Various PPP Models 29
4.1 PPP Models taken up for analysis 29
4.2 Basic Assumptions 29
4.2.1 Depreciation Rate 30
4.2.2 Means of Finance 30
4.2.3 Macroeconomic Costs 30
4.3 Only Lease Rental Model 31
4.3.1 Salient Features of the Only Lease Rental Model. 31
4.3.2 Project Cost 32
4.3.3 Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs 33
4.3.4 Profit-Loss Statement- Only Lease Rental Model 33
4.3.5 Concessionaire’s Cash-Flow Statement 33
4.3.6 AMTS’s Cash-Flow Statement 34
4.3.7 Breakeven Analysis for Only Lease Rental Model 35
4.3.7.1 Breakeven keeping the concession period dynamic 36
4.3.7.2 Breakeven keeping the lease premium payable to AMTS dynamic 37
4.3.8 Conclusions from the Only Lease Rental Model 39
4.4 Upfront Premium Only 40
4.4.1 Salient Features of the Upfront Premium Only Model 40
4.4.2 Project Cost 40
4.4.3 Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs 41
4.4.4 Profit-Loss Statement- Upfront Premium only 41
4.4.5 Concessionaire’s Cash-Flow Statement 42
4.4.6 AMTS’s Cash-Flow Statement 43
4.4.7 Breakeven Analysis for Upfront Premium Only Model 44
4.4.7.1 Breakeven for the Pessimistic Scenario 45
4.4.7.2 Breakeven for the Optimistic Scenario 46
4.4.7.3 Concessionaire’s Breakeven keeping the concession Period Dynamic-Probabilistic Scenario 47
4.4.7.4 AMTS Breakeven keeping the concession Period Dynamic-Probabilistic Scenario 47
4.4.8 Conclusions from the upfront premium only 48
4.5 Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model 49
4.5.1 Salient Features of the Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model 49
4.5.2 Project Cost 50
4.5.3 Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Cost 51
4.5.4 Profit-Loss Statement- Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model 51
4.5.5 Concessionaire’s Cash Flow Statement- Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model 52
4.5.6 AMTS’s Cash-Flow Statement- Upfront Premium+ Lease Rental Model 52
4.5.7 Breakeven Analysis for Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Only Model 53
4.5.7.1 Breakeven for the Pessimistic Scenario 54
4.5.7.2 Breakeven for the Optimistic Scenario 55
4.5.7.3 Concessionaire’s and AMTS’s Breakeven keeping the concession Period Dynamic-Probabilistic Scenario 56
4.5.8 Conclusions from the upfront premium + Lease rental only 56
4.6 Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model+ % share in the revenue 57
4.6.1 Salient Features of the Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model+ % share in the revenu 57
4.6.2 Project Cost 58
4.6.3 Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Cost 59
4.6.4 Profit-Loss Statement- Upfront Premium+ Lease Rental + % Share in the revenue Model59
4.6.5 Concessionaire’s Cash Flow Statement- Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model + % Share in the revenue 60
4.6.6 AMTS’s Cash-Flow Statement- Upfront Premium+ Lease Rental + % share in the revenue Model 60
4.6.7 Breakeven Analysis for Upfront Premium + Lease Rental + % Share in the revenue Model 61
4.6.7.1 Concessionaire’s and AMTS’s Breakeven- Upfront Premium + Lease Rental + % Share in the revenue Model 62
4.6.7.2 Effect of % occupancy on the lease rental and upfront premium for the most probable scenario 63
4.6.8 Conclusions from the upfront premium + Lease rental + % Share in the revenue Model 63
4.7 Summary of the four models 64
4.7.1 Summary of the four Models- Pessimistic Scenario 64
4.7.2 Summary of the four Models-Optimistic Scenario 67
4.7.3 Risk Sharing Framework: Upfront Premium + Lease Rental Model 69
4.8 Hybrid Annuity Model (Future) 71
4.8.1 Features of the Hybrid Annuity Model-Lal Darwaja Bus Terminal Case 71
4.8.2 Project Cost-Concessionaire- Hybrid Annuity Model 72
4.8.3 Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Cost-Hybrid Annuity Model 73
4.8.4 Profit Loss Statement-Hybrid Annuity Model 73
4.8.5 Concessionaire’s Cash Flow Statement- Hybrid Annuity Model 74
4.8.6 AMTS’s Cash Flow Statement- Hybrid Annuity Model 74
4.8.7 Breakeven Analysis for Hybrid Annuity Model 75
4.8.7.1 Breakeven Analysis- Effect of % share in revenue on the feasibility 75
4.8.7.1 Breakeven Analysis- Effect on concession period for 30% share in revenue 76
4.8.7.2 Breakeven Analysis- Effect on concession period for 40% share in revenue 77
4.8.8 Risk Sharing Framework: Hybrid Annuity Model 78
4.8.9 Conclusions from the Hybrid Annuity Model 79
5. Conclusions 80
6. Recommendations 81
References 82
Annexure 83