CONTENTS
1. Introduction 5
1.1 Background 5
1.2 Need for study 5
1.3 Objectives of Study 6
1.4 Scope 6
1.5 Research Methodology 6
1.6 Research Schedule 7
2 Literature Review. 8
2.1 Overview of Metro Rail Projects in India 8
2.2 Introduction to Project appraisal 8
2.3 Appraisal Methodology for Metro Project 9
2.4 Economic Appraisal 13
2.5 Inaccuracy of Forecasts 14
3 Data Collection 15
3.1 Overview 15
3.2 Case Study Selection 15
3.3 Data Collection Methodology 16
3.3.1 Primary Data 16
3.3.2 Secondary Data 17
3.4 Case Study 17
3.4.1 Cost overrun in Metro Projects 18
3.4.2 Achieved Ridership in Metro Projects 19
4 Data Analysis 20
4.1 Trend line analysis 20
4.2 Reference cast forecasting 21
4.2.1 Distribution of Cost Overrun 22
4.2.2 Uplift factor for cost overrun 22
4.2.3 Distribution of Ridership Forecasts 23
4.3 findings from Questionnaire survey 24
5 Economic Appraisal of Ahmedabad Metro 26
5.1 Selection of Uplift Factor for cost estimate 26
5.2 Completion cost 26
5.3 Correction factor for ridership forecast 28
5.4 Economic Benefits 29
5.4.1 Variables for benefits 29
5.4.2 Calculation of Benefits 31
5.4.3 Economic benefits from ahmedabad metro 32
5.5 Economic analysis of ahmedabad Metro 35
5.5.1 Economic conversion factor 35
5.5.2 Benefit cost ratio 35
5.6 Operation of Ahmedabad Metro 36
6 Conclusion 38
7 Recommendations 39
8 Future scope 39
9 Bibliography 40
10 Appendix 42