CONTENTS
List of figures page xii
List 0/tables xviii
Preface xvii
Language and measures xix
Acknowledgements xxii
Permissions xxiv
Part 1: The Litany
1 Things are getting better 3
The Litany 3
Things ore better - but not necessarily good 4
Exaggeration and good management 5
Fundamentals: trends 5
Fundamentals: global trends 6
Fundamentals: long-term trends 8
Fundamentals: how is it important? 9
Fundamentals: people 11
Reality versus myths 12
Reality: WorldWatch Institute 13
Reality: World Wide Fund for Nature 16
Reality: Greenpeace 17
Reality: wrong bad statistics and economics 18
Reality: water problems 19
Reality: rtmentel and global health I 21
Reality: fflmentel and global health II 24
Reality versus rhetoric and poor predictions 27
Reality 30
Reality and morality 32
2 Why do we hear so much bad news? 34
Research 35
The file drawer and data massage 36
Organizations 37
The media 39
lopsided reality: sporadic but predictable 39
Lopsided reality: bad news 40
Lopsided reality: conflict and guilt 41
The consequences 41
Part II: Human welfare
3 Measuring human welfare 45
How many people on earth? 45
The changing demographics 47
Overpopulation 48
4 Life expectancy and health 50
Life expectancy 50
Life expectancy in the developing world 51
Infant mortality 53
Illness 55
Conclusion 58
5 Food and hunger 60
Malthus and everlasting hunger 60
More food than ever 61
Lower prices than ever 62
The Green Revolution 62
Relative or absolute improvement? 64
Regional distribution: Africa 65
Regional distribution: China 66
Conclusion 67
Is inflation-adjusted GDP a reasonable
measure of wealth? 68
6 Prosperity 70
Poverty and distribution 71
Ever greater inequality? 73
Poorer still? 75
More consumer goods 78
More education 81
More leisure time 82
More safety and security 84
Fewer catastrophes and accidents 85
7 Conclusion to Part II: unprecedented
human prosperity 87
Part III: Can human prosperity continue?
8 Are we living on borrowed time? 91
Resources - the foundation for welfare 91
9 Will we have enough food? 93
At least grain per capita is declining 93
Declining productivity 95
Limits to yields? 96
Biomass 99
What about ordinary peasants? 100
Do we still need the high growth? 100
Grain stocks are dropping.' 101
What about China? 102
Should we worry about erosion? 104
What about fish? 106
Conclusion 108
10 Forests - are we losing them? 110
Forests and history 112
Deforestation, a general view 112
Deforestation: how much? 114
How much forest? 115
Conclusion 117
11 Energy 118
We are a civilization built on energy 118
Do we have enough energy to go on? 119
The oil crisis 120
How much oil left? 121
Optimists and pessimists arguing 124
Ever more oil available 125
Other fossil energy sources 126
Nuclear energy 128
Renewable energy 129
Solar energy 133
Wind energy 134
Storage and mobile consumption 135
Conclusion 135
12 Non-energy resources 137
The pessimists bet on resources running out - and lost 137
Falling prices 137
Cement 138
Aluminum 138
Iron 140
Copper 143
Gold and silver 144
Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium 145
Zinc 145
Other resources 146
Why do we have ever more resources? 147
Conclusion 148
13 Water 149
How much water in the world? 149
The three central problems 151
Not enough water? 152
Will it get worse in the future? 154
Will we see increased conflict? 156
Conclusion 157
14 Conclusion to Part III: continued
prosperity 159
Part IV: Pollution: does it undercut human prosperity?
15 Air pollution 163
Air pollution in times past 163
What is dangerous? 165
Particles 167
Lead 170
S02 172
Ozone 173
NO, 174
CO 175
And the developing world? Both growth and environment 175
Conclusion 177
16 Acid rain and forest death 178
17 Indoor air pollution 182
Indoor air pollution in the developing world 182
Indoor air pollution in the developed world 183
18 Allergies and asthma 185
19 Water pollution 189
Oil pollution in the oceans 189
Oil in the Gulf 191
Exxon Valdez: still a catastrophe? 192
Pollution in coastal waters 194
Suffocation in coastal waters 195
Health effects from fertilizer 201
Pollution in rivers 202
20 Waste: running out of space? 206
21 Conclusion to Part IV: the pollution
burden has diminished 210
Part V: Tomorrow's problems
22 Our chemical fears 215
Cancer, death 217
Cancer, incidence 222
1-in-S and other lifetime risks 223
The /ear of pesticides 226
Establishing thresholds through risk analysis 226
Pesticides and cancer 228
Cancer in animal experiments 231
Natural and synthetic pesticides 232
Synthetic estrogens 236
Synthetic estrogens: a fall in sperm quality 238
l Organic farmers 240
Synthetic estrogens: the "cocktail" effect 241
Synthetic estrogens: breast cancer 242
Synthetic estrogens: should we worry? 244
Conclusion: should we use pesticides? 245
23 Biodiversity 249
How many species are there? 249
Is biodiversity important? 250
How many go extinct? 251
The claim of 40,000 species 252
A model backup 252
What do we lose? 253
Models and reality 253
Tlie biologists' reaction 254
Check the data 254
The biologists' response 256
Conclusion: what are the consequences
seriously overstating the extinctions? 257
24 Global warming 258
The basic greenhouse effect 259
The long-term development of the climate 260
The climate, 1856-2100 263
How much does C02 affect the temperature? 265
How much does C02 affect the temperature? 266
Particles
How much does C02 affect the temperature? 269
Water vapor
How much does C02 affect the temperature?
Clouds 270
The ozone hole 273
Are there other causes? 276
Are the scenarios realistic? 278
Are the scenarios realistic? The 40 new scenarios 280
Consequences: agriculture 287
Consequences: sea level rise 289
Consequences: human health 291
Consequences: extreme weather 292
Consequences: present and future weather 297
The cost of warming 300
The cost of cutting C02 302
Then what should we do? 305
The double dividend: improve the
environment and make money? 308
Objections: cut C02 and make money 312
Objections: the price of the future 313
Objections: the fear of catastrophe 315
Summing up 317
More than meets the eye 318
Conclusion: scares and sound policy 322
Part VI: The Real State of the World
25 Predicament or progress? 327
The Great Fable of the litany 327
The Real State of the World 328
Yet we worry ever more 330
Setting priorities and risks 333
Weighing risks 336
The costs of the Litany 338
Genetically modified foods - the encapsulation of the Litany 342
Caution when invoking the principle 348
Continued progress 350
Notes 353
Bibliography 435
Index 506