System dynamics approach for demand and revenue riskanalysis of metro rail PPP project in India (Softcopy is also available)
Shah, Rishabh Dharmesh (PT102017)
System dynamics approach for demand and revenue riskanalysis of metro rail PPP project in India (Softcopy is also available) - 2019 - ii,xix,113p.
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT I
UNDERTAKING III
CERTIFICATE V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS IX
LIST OF TABLES XV
LIST OF FIGURES XIX
CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1
Background 1
Need for study 2
Objective of study 3
Scope of study 3
Research schedule 4
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 5
Key risk factors 5
Learnings from the literature review 9
Risk definition 9
Demand risk 9
Revenue risk 10
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13
Adopting system dynamics approach 13
Application of SD for PPP infrastructure projects 14
Methodology Adopted by the Relevant Studies 15
Methodology Adopted for current research 16
Model conceptualization 17
Model formulation 18
Model Simulation and Testing 18
CHAPTER 4: DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL 19
Problem identification 19
Model conceptualization 19
Process of Validation - CLD 20
Validated CLD – Demand Risk 21
Validated causal loop diagram – Demand risk 22
Analysis for causal loop diagram – Demand Risk 22
Discussions from semi structured interviews 23
\Revenue risk 25
Validated factors – Revenue Risk 25
Validated causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk 27
Analysis for causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk 27
Model formulation 29
Definition of system and dynamics 29
Tools of stocks and flow 29
Validation of stocks and flow diagram 30
Process of validation – Stocks and flow diagram 31
Demand risk 32
Assumptions for developing stocks and Flow Diagram – Demand Risk 32
Stocks and flow diagram – Demand Risk 32
Equation for Stocks, Flow and Auxiliary Variables – Demand Risk 32
Revenue risk 44
Assumptions for developing Stocks and Flow diagram – Revenue risk 44
Stocks and Flow Diagram – Revenue Risk 44
Equation for Stocks, Flow and Auxiliary Variables 44
Case study Validation 50
Case study – Mumbai metro rail (Line 1) 51
Introduction 51
Stakeholder details 51
Discussion on Input variables pertaining to Mumbai metro line 1 Case study 51 4.5.3.1
Planning and construction 52
Operation 55
Revenue 67
Revenue from the rail System 67
Revenue from other sources 68
Model inputs - Summary 69
Model inputs – Demand risk 69
Model inputs – Revenue risk 72
Model validation – Mumbai metro line 1 (case study) 73
Demand risk 73
Population forecast 73
Employment opportunities 74
Capacity of Metro Rail 74
Ridership based on scenarios 75
Demand gap 76
Revenue risk 78
Revenue from rail system inflow 78
Revenue from the real estate development 79
Actual OPEX 80
Revenue 81
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS 83
Achievement of research objectives 83
Limitations 84
CHAPTER 6: RECOMMENDATIONS & FUTURE SCOPE 85
Recommendations 85
Future scope 85
REFERENCES 87
APPENDIX 93
Appendix (A) – Interview 1 93
Appendix (B) – Interview 2 94
Appendix (C) – Interview 3 95
Appendix (D) – Interview 4 96
Appendix (E) – Interview 5 97
Appendix (F) – Interview 6 98
Appendix (G) – Interview 7 99
Appendix (H) – Interview 8 100
Appendix (G): Validated causal loop diagram – Demand Risk 101
Appendix (H): Validated causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk 102
Appendix (I): Validated Stocks and flow diagram – Demand Risk 103
Appendix (J): Validated Stocks and flow diagram – Revenue Risk 104
Appendix (K) : Literature Review Table for Problem Identification and Model Conceptualization 105
Appendix (L) : Literature Review Table for Methodology 110
CPM TH-0341 / SHA
System dynamics approach for demand and revenue riskanalysis of metro rail PPP project in India (Softcopy is also available) - 2019 - ii,xix,113p.
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT I
UNDERTAKING III
CERTIFICATE V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS IX
LIST OF TABLES XV
LIST OF FIGURES XIX
CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1
Background 1
Need for study 2
Objective of study 3
Scope of study 3
Research schedule 4
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 5
Key risk factors 5
Learnings from the literature review 9
Risk definition 9
Demand risk 9
Revenue risk 10
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13
Adopting system dynamics approach 13
Application of SD for PPP infrastructure projects 14
Methodology Adopted by the Relevant Studies 15
Methodology Adopted for current research 16
Model conceptualization 17
Model formulation 18
Model Simulation and Testing 18
CHAPTER 4: DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL 19
Problem identification 19
Model conceptualization 19
Process of Validation - CLD 20
Validated CLD – Demand Risk 21
Validated causal loop diagram – Demand risk 22
Analysis for causal loop diagram – Demand Risk 22
Discussions from semi structured interviews 23
\Revenue risk 25
Validated factors – Revenue Risk 25
Validated causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk 27
Analysis for causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk 27
Model formulation 29
Definition of system and dynamics 29
Tools of stocks and flow 29
Validation of stocks and flow diagram 30
Process of validation – Stocks and flow diagram 31
Demand risk 32
Assumptions for developing stocks and Flow Diagram – Demand Risk 32
Stocks and flow diagram – Demand Risk 32
Equation for Stocks, Flow and Auxiliary Variables – Demand Risk 32
Revenue risk 44
Assumptions for developing Stocks and Flow diagram – Revenue risk 44
Stocks and Flow Diagram – Revenue Risk 44
Equation for Stocks, Flow and Auxiliary Variables 44
Case study Validation 50
Case study – Mumbai metro rail (Line 1) 51
Introduction 51
Stakeholder details 51
Discussion on Input variables pertaining to Mumbai metro line 1 Case study 51 4.5.3.1
Planning and construction 52
Operation 55
Revenue 67
Revenue from the rail System 67
Revenue from other sources 68
Model inputs - Summary 69
Model inputs – Demand risk 69
Model inputs – Revenue risk 72
Model validation – Mumbai metro line 1 (case study) 73
Demand risk 73
Population forecast 73
Employment opportunities 74
Capacity of Metro Rail 74
Ridership based on scenarios 75
Demand gap 76
Revenue risk 78
Revenue from rail system inflow 78
Revenue from the real estate development 79
Actual OPEX 80
Revenue 81
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS 83
Achievement of research objectives 83
Limitations 84
CHAPTER 6: RECOMMENDATIONS & FUTURE SCOPE 85
Recommendations 85
Future scope 85
REFERENCES 87
APPENDIX 93
Appendix (A) – Interview 1 93
Appendix (B) – Interview 2 94
Appendix (C) – Interview 3 95
Appendix (D) – Interview 4 96
Appendix (E) – Interview 5 97
Appendix (F) – Interview 6 98
Appendix (G) – Interview 7 99
Appendix (H) – Interview 8 100
Appendix (G): Validated causal loop diagram – Demand Risk 101
Appendix (H): Validated causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk 102
Appendix (I): Validated Stocks and flow diagram – Demand Risk 103
Appendix (J): Validated Stocks and flow diagram – Revenue Risk 104
Appendix (K) : Literature Review Table for Problem Identification and Model Conceptualization 105
Appendix (L) : Literature Review Table for Methodology 110
CPM TH-0341 / SHA