000			07755 a2200157 4500
020			_a9780521671521
082			_a363.7 _bLOM
100			_aLomborg, Bjorn _949684
245			_aSkeptical environmentalist : measuring the real state of the world
260			_bCambridge Uni. Press _c2001 _aCambridge
300			_axxiii,515p.
505			_aCONTENTS List of figures page xii List 0/tables xviii Preface xvii Language and measures xix Acknowledgements xxii Permissions xxiv Part 1: The Litany 1 Things are getting better 3 The Litany 3 Things ore better - but not necessarily good 4 Exaggeration and good management 5 Fundamentals: trends 5 Fundamentals: global trends 6 Fundamentals: long-term trends 8 Fundamentals: how is it important? 9 Fundamentals: people 11 Reality versus myths 12 Reality: WorldWatch Institute 13 Reality: World Wide Fund for Nature 16 Reality: Greenpeace 17 Reality: wrong bad statistics and economics 18 Reality: water problems 19 Reality: rtmentel and global health I 21 Reality: fflmentel and global health II 24 Reality versus rhetoric and poor predictions 27 Reality 30 Reality and morality 32 2 Why do we hear so much bad news? 34 Research 35 The file drawer and data massage 36 Organizations 37 The media 39 lopsided reality: sporadic but predictable 39 Lopsided reality: bad news 40 Lopsided reality: conflict and guilt 41 The consequences 41 Part II: Human welfare 3 Measuring human welfare 45 How many people on earth? 45 The changing demographics 47 Overpopulation 48 4 Life expectancy and health 50 Life expectancy 50 Life expectancy in the developing world 51 Infant mortality 53 Illness 55 Conclusion 58 5 Food and hunger 60 Malthus and everlasting hunger 60 More food than ever 61 Lower prices than ever 62 The Green Revolution 62 Relative or absolute improvement? 64 Regional distribution: Africa 65 Regional distribution: China 66 Conclusion 67 Is inflation-adjusted GDP a reasonable measure of wealth? 68 6 Prosperity 70 Poverty and distribution 71 Ever greater inequality? 73 Poorer still? 75 More consumer goods 78 More education 81 More leisure time 82 More safety and security 84 Fewer catastrophes and accidents 85 7 Conclusion to Part II: unprecedented human prosperity 87 Part III: Can human prosperity continue? 8 Are we living on borrowed time? 91 Resources - the foundation for welfare 91 9 Will we have enough food? 93 At least grain per capita is declining 93 Declining productivity 95 Limits to yields? 96 Biomass 99 What about ordinary peasants? 100 Do we still need the high growth? 100 Grain stocks are dropping.' 101 What about China? 102 Should we worry about erosion? 104 What about fish? 106 Conclusion 108 10 Forests - are we losing them? 110 Forests and history 112 Deforestation, a general view 112 Deforestation: how much? 114 How much forest? 115 Conclusion 117 11 Energy 118 We are a civilization built on energy 118 Do we have enough energy to go on? 119 The oil crisis 120 How much oil left? 121 Optimists and pessimists arguing 124 Ever more oil available 125 Other fossil energy sources 126 Nuclear energy 128 Renewable energy 129 Solar energy 133 Wind energy 134 Storage and mobile consumption 135 Conclusion 135 12 Non-energy resources 137 The pessimists bet on resources running out - and lost 137 Falling prices 137 Cement 138 Aluminum 138 Iron 140 Copper 143 Gold and silver 144 Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium 145 Zinc 145 Other resources 146 Why do we have ever more resources? 147 Conclusion 148 13 Water 149 How much water in the world? 149 The three central problems 151 Not enough water? 152 Will it get worse in the future? 154 Will we see increased conflict? 156 Conclusion 157 14 Conclusion to Part III: continued prosperity 159 Part IV: Pollution: does it undercut human prosperity? 15 Air pollution 163 Air pollution in times past 163 What is dangerous? 165 Particles 167 Lead 170 S02 172 Ozone 173 NO, 174 CO 175 And the developing world? Both growth and environment 175 Conclusion 177 16 Acid rain and forest death 178 17 Indoor air pollution 182 Indoor air pollution in the developing world 182 Indoor air pollution in the developed world 183 18 Allergies and asthma 185 19 Water pollution 189 Oil pollution in the oceans 189 Oil in the Gulf 191 Exxon Valdez: still a catastrophe? 192 Pollution in coastal waters 194 Suffocation in coastal waters 195 Health effects from fertilizer 201 Pollution in rivers 202 20 Waste: running out of space? 206 21 Conclusion to Part IV: the pollution burden has diminished 210 Part V: Tomorrow's problems 22 Our chemical fears 215 Cancer, death 217 Cancer, incidence 222 1-in-S and other lifetime risks 223 The /ear of pesticides 226 Establishing thresholds through risk analysis 226 Pesticides and cancer 228 Cancer in animal experiments 231 Natural and synthetic pesticides 232 Synthetic estrogens 236 Synthetic estrogens: a fall in sperm quality 238 l Organic farmers 240 Synthetic estrogens: the "cocktail" effect 241 Synthetic estrogens: breast cancer 242 Synthetic estrogens: should we worry? 244 Conclusion: should we use pesticides? 245 23 Biodiversity 249 How many species are there? 249 Is biodiversity important? 250 How many go extinct? 251 The claim of 40,000 species 252 A model backup 252 What do we lose? 253 Models and reality 253 Tlie biologists' reaction 254 Check the data 254 The biologists' response 256 Conclusion: what are the consequences seriously overstating the extinctions? 257 24 Global warming 258 The basic greenhouse effect 259 The long-term development of the climate 260 The climate, 1856-2100 263 How much does C02 affect the temperature? 265 How much does C02 affect the temperature? 266 Particles How much does C02 affect the temperature? 269 Water vapor How much does C02 affect the temperature? Clouds 270 The ozone hole 273 Are there other causes? 276 Are the scenarios realistic? 278 Are the scenarios realistic? The 40 new scenarios 280 Consequences: agriculture 287 Consequences: sea level rise 289 Consequences: human health 291 Consequences: extreme weather 292 Consequences: present and future weather 297 The cost of warming 300 The cost of cutting C02 302 Then what should we do? 305 The double dividend: improve the environment and make money? 308 Objections: cut C02 and make money 312 Objections: the price of the future 313 Objections: the fear of catastrophe 315 Summing up 317 More than meets the eye 318 Conclusion: scares and sound policy 322 Part VI: The Real State of the World 25 Predicament or progress? 327 The Great Fable of the litany 327 The Real State of the World 328 Yet we worry ever more 330 Setting priorities and risks 333 Weighing risks 336 The costs of the Litany 338 Genetically modified foods - the encapsulation of the Litany 342 Caution when invoking the principle 348 Continued progress 350 Notes 353 Bibliography 435 Index 506
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