Introduction xi iPhilosophies 15 ANatural Philosophy 17 Things and Processes BMoral Philosophy 25 Values; Thinking and Feeling; Christianity and Environment 2Complexity 30 AThe Nature of Complexity 30 Relations, Instructions and the Mind BComplexity of Information in the Modern World 32 3Complex Shapes 38 ASymmetry and Ordered Shapes 38 BShapes, neither Symmetrical nor Ordered 43 4The Structure of Complex Systems 48 AHierarchies 48 BOther Types of Order 51 5Processes in Complex Systems 64 AOpen and Closed Systems 64 BGrowth 65 Exponential Growth; Compound Interest and Discounting the Future; Accelerated Exponential Growth; Limits to Growth; Differential Growth 6. Feed-back in Systems 80 A Sequences 80 Positive Feed-back; Chain Reactions; Negative Feed-back BNetworks 87 Modelling Networks; Soft Spots CLock-In, Schismogenesis and Double-bind 92 7. Stablization in Complex Systems 97 A- Terminating Systems and Stable States 98 B Progressive Systems and Stable Flows 103 Chreods and Epigenetic Landscapes; Exploring a Landscape CThe Epigenetic Landscape of Human Society 114 8. Analysing Systems 117 A The Classical Scientific Method 117 Verification, Refutation or Getting a Likeness?; Strong Inference; Hard Work and Skill; The Limits of Science B Statistics 130 Populations; Samples; Correlations 9. Communication in Systems140 AInformation Theory 140 BInstructions and Programs 145 The Same Rules and Different Starts; Different Rules and the Same Start 10 Handling Systems 161 AThe Theory of Games 161 Zero-Sum Games; Non-Zero-Sum Games; Real Games BTime Budgeting 173 CMeeting Conflicting Requirements 177 Theory; Democratic Practice DDealing With an Unpredictable Future 185 EOperational Research 189 11 Technological Forecasting 198 AExploratory Forecasting 198 Brainstorming; Delphi Technique; Cross-Impact Matrices; Scenario Writing; Models - Operational, Mathematical, Physical; Gaming-Simulation; Trend Extrapolation BNormative 215 Relevance Trees; Pattern; Levels in the Relevance Tree CTechnology Assessment 223 12System Modelling225 The World as a System 226 Epilogue 231 References and Suggested Reading 236 Index 241