CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Research need 2 1.2 Significance of the study 4 1.3 Aim and Objectives 4 1.4 Scope and limitation 5 1.4 Research methodology 5 Chapter 2 Literature review 7 2.1 Defining reliability 7 2.1.1 Transit agencies or operators perspective for reliability 8 2.1.2 Passengers’ perspective for reliability 9 2.2 Importance of reliability in public transportation systems 9 2.3 Factors Affecting Reliability 10 2.4 Measuring reliability 13 2.4.1 Transit Agencies Reliability Indicators 14 2.5 ITS and Measuring Reliability 16 2.6 Reliability Indicators Selected for the Study 17 Chapter 3 Case Study Background 21 3.1 Public transport in Ahmedabad 21 Chapter 4 Methodology 28 4.1 Route selection 28 4.1.1 Route profile 30 4.2 Data 33 4.2.1 Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) data 33 4.2.2 Logs data (GPS tracker continuous data) 34 4.2.3 Stop locations data 34 4.3 Methods to Measure Selected Reliability Indicators 35 4.3.1 On-time performance 37 4.3.2 Run time reliability 37 4.3.3 Headway regularity 39 4.3.4 Passenger wait time 40 Chapter 5 Results and Discussion 45 5.1 On-time performance 45 5.1.1 OTP based on AMTS time-window criteria 45 5.1.2 Problem with time-window selection criteria 46 5.1.3 Arrival at last stops 47 5.1.4 Significance and setbacks of OTP indicator 48 5.2 Run time reliability 49 5.2.1 Run time difference 49 5.2.2 Run time consistency 51 5.3 Headway regularity 52 5.3.1 Stop selection for analysis 53 5.3.2 Coefficient of variation of headways 53 5.3.3 Significance of headway regularity 55 5.3.4 Bus-route trajectories 56 5.3.5 Relation of headway regularity with other indicators 58 5.4 Passenger wait times 58 5.4.1 Passenger arrival pattern survey analysis 59 5.4.2 Calculation of passenger wait times 61 5.4.3 Relation of waiting times with other supply-side indicators 63 5.4.4 Significance of the passenger waiting time analysis 63 Chapter 6 Conclusion and Recommendations 66 6.1 Conclusion of the study 66 6.2 Recommendations for AMTS operator 71 Chapter 7 Bibliography 74