CONTENTS Acknowledgments ix PART ONE: THE PROBLEM 1 Introduction 3 Purposes of the Book, 8 o Methodology, 9 A Guide for the Reader, 12 1 Overview and Context 16 What Will Be Required to Change Toward Lrsp?, 18 ' The Societal Expression of Human Nature: One Perspective, 23 ' Environmental Turbulence as the Context for Lrsp, 27 Some Sources of Turbulence and Their Implications, 32 2. The Meaning and Purposes of Long-Range Social Planning-or Future-Responsive Societal Learning 37 What Is Meant by Long-Range Social Planning?, 37 ' The State of the Technology, 48 The Relationship Between the Organization and Its Environment, 59 ' On Incrementalism and Satisficing in a Lsrp Context, 62 Distributive Equity and Lsrp, 64 ' Evaluation of Social Experiments in the Context of Lrsp, 64 ' Phases and Actors in Change-Over Processes, 67 ' Is Lrsp Underway Outside the United States?, 74 3. Sources of Individual Support for Change Toward LRSP 76 Need to Anticipate the Societal Consequences of Whatever Is Underway Now, 77 ' Hopes That Planning Can Undercut Dissidence, 78 ' Hope That Professional Skills Can Facilitate Lrsp, 79 Academicians Seek Relevance by Contributing to Lrsp, 81 ' Professionals Need to Be Needed, 82 ' Increased Institutionalizing of Activities That Convey Intent or Capacity to Do Social Planning, Thereby Encouraging Others to Do Likewise, 83 ' Sources of Resistance to Lrsp, 85 ' Summary, 87 4. LRSP in Corporations 88 The Conventional Corporate Situation Today, 90 The Developing Corporate Situation Today, 96 PART TWO: THE BURDENS OF CHANGING: PERSONAL AND INTERPERSONAL 101 5. On the Requirement for Living with Uncertainty 108 Uncertainty as a Psychological State, 110 Sources of Psychological Uncertainty, 115 Means for Avoiding Uncertainty, 117 Advantages of Acknowledging Uncertainty, 125 What Is Required to Acknowledge Uncertainty, 126 ' Haven't People Always Acted Under Uncertainty?, 128 6. On the Requirement for Embracing Error 131 Avoiding and Repudiating Error, 131 ' Could Error-Embracing Have Social-Psychological Rewards?, 138 ' Accountability Under Conditions of Error-Embracing, 139 7. On the Requirement for Future-Responsive Goal-Setting 144 The Meaning and Purposes of Goal-Setting in Frsl, 144 ' Resistances to Effective Goal-Setting for Lrsp, 148 ' Means Used to Resist Serious Goal-Setting, 152 ' Are There Ways to Reduce Resistance to Serious Goal-Setting?, 154 8. Social Psychological Burdens in Coping with the Future 157 Beliefs About the Future as a Function of Beliefs About the Past, 157 ' The Consequences of Future-Thinking as a Threat to Competence, 160 Future Studies as a Source for Myths, 162 9. How Changing Toward LRSP Intensifies Role Conflict and Role Ambiguity 164 The Significance of Role Conflict and Role Ambiguity for Lrsp, 165 ' Role Stress from Challenges to Legitimacy, 168 ' Role Stress from Challenges Concerning What Constitutes Competent and Responsible Performance, 172 The Advocate Planner as Exemplar of Some Relevant Role Stresses, 179 10. On the Necessity for Greater Interpersonal Competence 182 Evidences of Interpersonal Incompetence, 183 ' Expressing and Coping with Expressed Feelings, 189 ' Offering Support, 192 Self-Understanding, 194 ' Subgroup Affiliation, 195 ' Trust, 196 PART THREE: THE BURDENS OF CHANGING: STRUCTURAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL 199 11. Why the Social Environment and Changing Toward LRSP Require Organizational Restructuring 202 12. On the Requirement for Changes in the Use, Duration, and Significance of Sentient Groups 210 The Functions of Sentient Groups, 210 Sentient-Group Characteristics of Professionals, and Their Influence on Efforts to Change Toward Lrsp, 216 ' Sentient-Group Characteristics of Top Decision Makers: Groupthink, 218 Other Sentient-Group Characteristics of Top Decision Makers, 220 Sentient-Group Characteristics of Middle-Level Administrators, 224 13. On the Requirement for a Frequent Restructuring Capability 226 Why a Restructuring Capability Is Necessary, 226 o Conditions That Will Stimulate Restructuring, 229 ' Sources of Resistance to Restructuring, 231 ' Ignorance About How to Restructure Humanely, 232 14. On the Requirement for More Boundary-Spanning 237 Boundary-Spanning as Integral to Lrsp, 238 Types of Boundary Spanners, 241 ' Reactions to Boundary-Spanning That Result in Resistance, 244 ' Burdens and Incentives Experienced by the Boundary Spanner, 250 15. How Conventional Organization Structures Resist the Requirement for Information-Sharing 255 The Present Status of Information-Sharing, 255 Structural Sources of Information Preemption, 258 ' Some Unresolved Dilemmas, 262 16. On the Importance of Feedback and the Resistances to It 265 What Characterizes Feedback Appropriate for Lrsp?, 265 ' How the Characteristics of Feedback Information Interact with Organizational Structures for Information Processing, 267 ' Structural Means Used to Avoid Feedback, 271 ' Possible Ways of Reducing Resistance to Feedback, 278 Epilogue: Outlook for Changing: Potentials and Threats 281 A Brief Review, 281 ' How I Define Feasible, 284 ' The Human Potential Image of Human Nature, 286 * Organizational Development as Facilitating Frsl, 294 ' Social Crises and Disasters as Facilitators of Frsl, 296 ' Social Indicators, Social Experiments, and Distributive Equity as Facilitators of Frsl, 299 Planning as a Facilitator of Frsl, 300 Feasible But How Hopeful?, 301 List of Respondents 305 References 313 Index 333