CONTENTS Acknowledgments vii 1:Why Project Risk Management? 1 The Doomed Project Risk Benefits and Uses of Risk Data -The Project Risk Management Process Anatomy of a Failed Project: The First Panama Canal Project 2:Planning for Risk Management 17 Project Selection Overall Project Planning Processes Defining Risk Management for the Project The PERIL Database A Second Panama Canal Project: Sponsorship and Initiation (1902-1904) 3:Identifying Project Scope Risk 40 Sources of Scope Risk Defining Deliverables High-level Risk Assessment Tools Setting Limits -Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Other Scope-Related Risks Documenting the Risks Panama Canal: Setting the Objective (1905-1906) 4:Identifying Project Schedule Risk 70 Sources of Schedule Risk Activity Definition Estimating Activity Duration Activity Sequencing Documenting the Risks Panama Canal: Planning (1905-1907) 5:Identifying Project Resource Risk 100 Sources of Resource Risk Resource Planning Staff Acquisition Outsourcing Project-Level Estimates Cost Estimating and Cost Budgeting Documenting the Risks Panama Canal: Resources (1905-1907) CHAPTER 6:Managing Project Constraints and Documenting Risks 127 Analyzing Constraints Managing Opportunities Scope Modification Resource Modification Schedule Modification Assessing Options and Updating Plans Seeking Missing Risks Documenting the Risks Panama Canal: Improving the Plan (1906) 7:Quantifying and Analyzing Activity Risks 149 Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Analysis Risk Probability Risk Impact Qualitative Risk Assessment Quantitative Risk Assessment Panama Canal: Risks (1906-1914) 8:Managing Activity Risks 176 Root-Cause Analysis Categories of Risk Risk Response Planning Risk Avoidance Risk Mitigation Risk Transfer- Implementing Preventative Ideas Contingency Planning Risk Acceptance Documenting Your Risk Plans Managing a Specific Risk Panama Canal: Risk Plans (1906-1914) 9:Quantifying and Analyzing Project Risk 212 Project-Level Risk Aggregating Risk Responses Questionnaires and Surveys Project Simulation and Modeling Analysis of Scale Project Appraisal Project Metrics Financial Metrics Panama Canal: Overall Risks (1907) 10. Managing Project Risk 251 Project Documentation Requirements Project Start-Up Selecting and Implementing Project Metrics Management Reserve Project Baseline Negotiation Project Plan Validation Specification Change Management Panama Canal: Adjusting the Objective (1907) 11: Monitoring and Controlling Risky Projects 272 Don't Panic Applying the Plan Project Monitoring Collecting Project Status Metrics and Trend Analysis Responding to Issues Communication Project Archive Project Reviews and Risk Reassessment Taking Over a Troubled Project Panama Canal: Risk-Based Replanning (1908) 12: Closing Projects 292 Project Closure Project Retrospective Analysis Panama Canal: Completion (1914) 13: Program, Portfolio, and Enterprise Risk Management 301 Project Risk Management in Context Program Risk Management Portfolio Risk Management Enterprise Risk Management Panama Canal: Over the Years 14. Conclusion 332 Choosing to Act Panama Canal: The Next Project Appendix: Selected Detail from the PERIL Database 339 Index 349