CONTETNS 1. Paper outline 115 2. Context of developing countries 115 2.1. Urban development and planning 115 2.2. Overview of urbanisation: India, Gujarat and Ahmedabad.117 2.3. Background of planning in the Indian context119 2.4. The need and relevance of this study 121 3.General introduction of the case study city of Ahmcdabad 122 3.1. Location, topography and climate 122 3.2. History 123 3.3. Demographics 123 3.4. Economy123 4. Introduction to modelling 124 4.1. Definition and types of models124 4.1.1. Descriptive models 124 4.1.2. Explanatory models124 4.1.3. Predictive models 124 4.2. Descriptive conceptual models of spatial organisation of land uses 124 4.2.1. Concentric zone theory (1925 125 4.2.2. Sector theory (1939 125 4.2.3. Multiple-nuclei theory (1945) 126 4.2.4. Application to Ahmedabad 126 4.3. Explanatory analytical models of location and land use 128 4.3.1. Isolated state (1826) 128 4.3.2. Industrial location theory (1909) 130 4.3.3. Central place theory (1933) 131 4.3.4. Urban bid-rent theory (1964) 134 4.4. Introduction to LUT1 models 137 4.4.1. The land use-transport relationship 137 4.4.2. The Lowry model 138 4.4.3. The MEPLAN model 139 4.4.4. The TRANUS model 140 4.4.5. The DELTA model 141 4.4.6. A brief discussion on LUTI models 142 5. SIMPLAN model: a brief introduction 142 6. Development of alternative policies for the future 146 6.1. Introduction 146 6.2. Key modelling inputs 147 6.3. Trend policy 2021 (TR21) 149 6.3.1. TR21 land use inputs 149 6.3.2. TR21 transport inputs 152 6.4. Compaction policy 2021 (CC21) 153 6.4.1. CC2! land use inputs 153 6.4.2. CC21 transport inputs 153 6.5. Dispersal policy 2021 (DS21) 154 6.5.1. DS21 land use inputs 154 6.5.2. DS21 transport inputs 157 7. Summary of modelling outputs 157 7.1. Land use outputs 157 7.2. Transport outputs 158 8. Sensitivity analysis 162 8.1. Variation in dwellings and employment allocation 162 8.2. Variation in income 164 9. Assessment of alternative planning policies 164 9.1. Economic assessment 165 9.1.1. Housing and work travel costs 165 9.1.2. Consumer and producer surplus in housing rent 167 9.1.3. Consumer surplus in transport 171 9.1.4. Estimates of costs 172 9.1.5. Summary of benefits and costs 173 9.2.Environmental assessment 174 9.2.1.Resources: new land required for residential use 174 9.2.2. Emissions: vehicular CO2 175 9.3.Social aspects 176 9.3.1. Mix of socioeconomic groups 177 9.3.2. Social equity 179 9.3.3. Accessibility 181 9.4.Sensitivity analysis: assessment summary of other alternatives 183 9.5. A discussion on assessment matrix 186 9.6.Conclusions on assessment 187 10.Feedback187 10.1. Background 187 10.1.1. Summary of key feedback and responses 188 10.2. SIMPLAN application to DP making 189 10.3. SIMPLAN simplifications and its application limitations 190 11.Conclusions 191 11.1. On alternative urban forms 191 11.2. On the model structure and operationality 193 11.3. On the context of developing countries 194 11.4. Summary of key research findings 194 11.5. Suggestions for further research 194 11.6. A final note198 Acknowledgements 198 References 203