Foreword v Acknowledgements viii OverviewFighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world 1 Chapter 1 The 21st Century climate challenge 19 1.1 Climate change and human development 24 The backdrop 24 Dangerous climate change five human development 'tipping points' 26 1.2 Climate science and future scenarios 31 Human-induced climate change 31 Global carbon accounting - stocks, flows and sinks 32 Climate change scenarios - the known, the known unknowns, and the uncertain 33 1.3 From global to local - measuring carbon footprints in an unequal world 39 National and regional footprints - the limits to convergence 40 Inequalities in carbon footprinting - some people walk more lightly than others 43 1.4 Avoiding dangerous climate change - a sustainable emissions pathway 44 Carbon budgeting for a fragile planet 46 Scenarios for climate security - time is running out 47 The cost of a low-carbon transition - is mitigation affordable? 51 1.5 Business-as-usual - pathways to an unsustainable climate future 52 Looking back - the world since 1990 52 Looking ahead - locked on a rising trajectory53 Drivers for increased emissions 56 1.6 Why we should act to avoid dangerous climate change 58 Climate stewardship in an interdependent world 58 Social justice and ecological interdependence 59 The economic case for urgent action 61 Mobilizing public action 65 Conclusion 68 Appendix table 1.1: Measuring the global carbon footprint - selected countries and regions 69 Chapter 2 Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal world 71 2.1 Climate shocks and low human development traps 75 Climate disasters - the rising trend 75 Risk and vulnerability 78 Low human development traps 83 HUMAN From climate shocks today to deprivation tomorrow - low human development traps in operation 88 2.2 Looking ahead - old problems and new climate change risks 90 Agricultural production and food security 90 Water stress and scarcity 94 Rising seas and exposure to extreme weather risks 98 Ecosystems and biodiversity 101 Human health and extreme weather events 105 Conclusion 106 Chapter 3 Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigation 109 3.1 Setting mitigation targets 112 Carbon budgeting - living within our ecological means 113 Emission reduction targets are proliferating 113 Four targeting problems in carbon budgeting 118 Targets matter, but so do outcomes 119 3.2 Putting a price on carbon - the role of markets and governments 125| Taxation versus 'cap-and-trade' 125 Cap-and-trade - lessons from the ED Emission Trading Scheme 129 3.3 The critical role of regulation and government action 132 Power generation - changing the emissions trajectory 133 The residential sector - low-cost mitigation 133 Vehicle emission standards 136 R&D and deployment of low-carbon technologies 143 3.4 The key role of international cooperation 147 An expanded role for technology transfer and finance148 Reducing deforestation 157 Conclusion 161 Chapter 4 Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperation I63 4.1 The national challenge 168 Adaptation in the developed world 168 Living with climate changeadaptation in developing countries 171 Framing national adaptation policies 172 4.2 International cooperation on climate change adaptation 184 The case for international action 185 Current adaptation financing - too little, too late, too fragmented 186 Rising to the adaptation challenge - strengthening international cooperation on adaptation 192 Conclusion 198 Notes 199 Bibliography 204