TY  - BOOK
AU  - Shah, Rishabh Dharmesh (PT102017)
AU  - Devkar, Ganesh (Guide)
TI  - System dynamics approach for demand and revenue riskanalysis of metro rail PPP project in India (Softcopy is also available)
U1  - CPM TH-0341 
PY  - 2019///
N1  - CONTENTS
ABSTRACT    I
UNDERTAKING   III
CERTIFICATE   V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS   VII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS IX
LIST OF TABLES   XV
LIST OF FIGURES  XIX
 
CHAPTER 1 :	INTRODUCTION	1
Background	1
Need for study	2
Objective of study	3
Scope of study	3
Research schedule	4
CHAPTER 2:	LITERATURE REVIEW	5
Key risk factors	5
Learnings from the literature review	9
Risk definition	9
Demand risk	9
Revenue risk	10
CHAPTER 3:	RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 	13
Adopting system dynamics approach	13
Application of SD for PPP infrastructure projects	14
Methodology Adopted by the Relevant Studies	15
Methodology Adopted for current research	16
Model conceptualization	17
Model formulation	18
Model Simulation and Testing	18
CHAPTER 4:	DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL	19
Problem identification	19
Model conceptualization	19
Process of Validation - CLD	20
Validated CLD – Demand Risk	21
Validated causal loop diagram – Demand risk	22
Analysis for causal loop diagram – Demand Risk	22
Discussions from semi structured interviews	23
\Revenue risk	25
Validated factors – Revenue Risk	25
Validated causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk	27
Analysis for causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk	27
Model formulation	29
Definition of system and dynamics	29
Tools of stocks and flow	29
Validation of stocks and flow diagram	30
Process of validation – Stocks and flow diagram	31
Demand risk	32
Assumptions for developing stocks and Flow Diagram – Demand Risk	32
Stocks and flow diagram – Demand Risk	32
Equation for Stocks, Flow and Auxiliary Variables – Demand Risk	32
Revenue risk	44
Assumptions for developing Stocks and Flow diagram – Revenue risk	44
Stocks and Flow Diagram – Revenue Risk	44
Equation for Stocks, Flow and Auxiliary Variables	44
Case study Validation 	50
Case study – Mumbai metro rail (Line 1) 	51
Introduction 	51
Stakeholder details 	51
Discussion on Input variables pertaining to Mumbai metro line 1 Case study 51 4.5.3.1	
Planning and construction 	52
Operation 	55
Revenue 	67
Revenue from the rail System 	67
Revenue from other sources 	68
Model inputs - Summary 	69
Model inputs – Demand risk 	69
Model inputs – Revenue risk 	72
Model validation – Mumbai metro line 1 (case study) 	73
Demand risk 	73
Population forecast 	73
Employment opportunities 	74
Capacity of Metro Rail 	74
Ridership based on scenarios 	75
Demand gap 	76
Revenue risk 	78
Revenue from rail system inflow 	78
Revenue from the real estate development 	79
Actual OPEX 	80
Revenue 	81
CHAPTER 5:	CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS 	83
Achievement of research objectives 	83
Limitations 	84
CHAPTER 6:	RECOMMENDATIONS & FUTURE SCOPE 	85
Recommendations	85
Future scope	85
REFERENCES	87
APPENDIX	93
Appendix (A) – Interview 1	93
Appendix (B) – Interview 2	94
Appendix (C) – Interview 3	95
Appendix (D) – Interview 4	96
Appendix (E) – Interview 5	97
Appendix (F) – Interview 6	98
Appendix (G) – Interview 7	99
Appendix (H) – Interview 8	100
Appendix (G): Validated causal loop diagram – Demand Risk	101
Appendix (H): Validated causal loop diagram – Revenue Risk	102
Appendix (I): Validated Stocks and flow diagram – Demand Risk	103
Appendix (J): Validated Stocks and flow diagram – Revenue Risk	104
Appendix (K) : Literature Review Table for Problem Identification and Model Conceptualization 	105
Appendix (L) : Literature Review Table for Methodology	110
 
 


ER  -