TY - GEN AU - Hickman, Robin AU - Banister, David TI - Transport, climate change and the city SN - 9780415660037 U1 - 388.4 PY - 2014/// CY - London PB - Routledge KW - N1 - CONTENTS List of illustrations ix Preface xix Acknowledgements xxii 1 Transport, climate change and the city 1 Introduction Climate change: the story so far A global transport perspective Reperceiving: after car dependence Framing the debate The dream and the reality: the picture of unsustainable mobility 2 Futures, scenarios and strategic conversations 65 Futures thinking Dealing with uncertainty The forecasting problem Utilising scenario analysis Backcasting and the VIBAT approach Developing scenarios Scenario analysis and MCA Conclusions 3 Ambitions towards sustainable mobility (London) 94 Introduction The ‘world city’ context Baseline and projections Available policy interventions and packages Developing scenarios ‘Known unknowns’: international air travel, carbon rationing and oil prices Conclusions: achieving deep reductions 4 Affluent rurality and car dependence (Oxfordshire) 141 Introduction The county and city context Baseline and projections Available potential interventions and packages Developing scenarios Low carbon transport and wider MCA impacts Conclusions: optimising strategies 5 Breaking the projected trend (Delhi) 177 Introduction The megacity context Baseline and projection Equity in target setting Developing scenarios Exploring the ‘optimised’ scenario Conclusions: avoiding the BAU 6 Building a new world (Jinan) 214 Introduction The emerging provincial city context Baseline and projections Developing scenarios Motorisation v. sustainable mobility Conclusions: accommodating the growth 7 Urban dispersal and high motorisation (Auckland) 259 Introduction The motorised city context Baseline and projections Developing scenarios Towards sustainable mobility Transition possibilities Conclusions: a radical transformation? The emerging picture of sustainable mobility 8 Sustainable transport and the city 319 Thinking about the future Meta narratives in transport Pathways to the future Adaptive backcasting Components of the future The critical role of urban structure Thinking the unthinkable? Towards the day-after-tomorrow Annex 354 References 356 Index 372 ER -