Foreword xxi Preface xxiii 1Human Ecology on Spaceship Earth 1 1.0Introduction / 1 1.01 Axiom 1 / 2 1.02 Axiom 2 / 5 1.03 Axiom 3 / 6 1.04 Philosophical Questions for the Quest / 9 1.1Development of Human Ecology / 9 1.11 Major Ages in Human History 710 1.12 The Biosphere: Spaceship Earth / 10 1.13 Limits to Growth / 11 1.2Summary / 13 References / 14 2 The Unending Quest for Abundant Energy 16 2.0Historical Perspective 716 2.1Characteristics of an Industrial Nation / 17 2.11Flow of Abundant Energy / 20 2.12Capital and Income Energy Resources / 22 2.2Exponential Growth Dynamics / 24 2.21Linear Growth / 24 2.22Exponential Growth / 25 2.23Doubling Time / 26 2.24Exponential Growth Scenarios / 27 2.25Calculation of Growth Rates by Regression Analysis / 29 2.3Current Growth in Energy Consumption /31 2.31Trends in Energy Consumption / 31 2.32Energy Intensity / 33 2.33Projections of Energy Intensities / 35 2.34Projections of Future Primary Energy Consumption / 35 2.4 Summary / 38 References / 38 3 The Fossil Fuel Era 40 3.0Historical Perspective / 40 3.01Fossil Fuel Consumption in the United States since 1900 / 41 3.1Fossil Fuels / 42 3.11Coal / 43 3.12Heating Value of Coal / 43 3.13Crude Oil / 44 3.14Natural Gas / 45 3.2Forecast of U.S. Energy Consumption through 2025 / 46 3.3How Long Will Fossil Fuels Last? / 48 3.31Estimation of Fossil Fuel Reserves / 48 3.32The McKelvey Diagram / 49 3.33Production of a Finite Resource / 52 3.34The Logistic Production Curve Method / 53 3.4Growth of Fossil Fuel Demand for Generation of Electricity / 59 3.5Summary / 60 References / 61 4 Sustainability of Energy Resources 63 4.0Sustainable Economic Development / 63 4.01Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development / 64 4.02Sustainable Energy Supply / 65 Sustainability of Electric 4.1 Energy Demand / 65 4.11The Electronic Way of Life / 66 4.12A Continental Superconducting Grid / 66 TABLE OF CONTENTS Vii 4.13The Hydrogen Fuel Era / 68 4.2Natural Gas in Sustainable Energy Supply / 69 4.21Petrochemical Use of Natural Gas / 70 4.22Growth of Natural Gas Consumption in the United States / 71 4.23Forecast of Natural Gas Consumption through 2025 / 73 4.24Natural Gas Supply and Reserves / 73 4.3Natural Gas Commitment for Electric Power Generation / 75 4.4Sustainability of Natural Gas as an Energy Resource / 77 4.5Nonfossil Energy Resources / 80 4.51Growth of Alternative (Nonfossil) Energy Use / 80 4.52Forecast of Nonfossil Energy Supply 781 4.6Summary / 82 References / 83 5 Environmental Impact of Energy Consumption 84 5.0Historical Perspective / 84 5.1Basics of Environmental Impact / 85 5.11Relationship between Magnitude and Severity / 86 5.12Consequences of Environmental Threat / 86 5.13A Hypothetical Example of Magnitude-Severity Analysis / 87 5.2The Saga of the Greenhouse Effect / 90 5.21Components of the Saga / 91 5.3Local Air Pollution from Automobile Exhaust / 101 5.31Environmental Impact of Smog / 103 5.32Nitrogen Oxides in Photochemical Smog / 104 5.33Magnitude-Severity Aspects of Nitrogen Oxides / 106 5.4Value of Air Quality Improvement in Transportation / 106 5.5Some Data for the Los Angeles Air Basin / 108 5.6Summary / 109 References / 109 6 The Nuclear Energy Era 111 6.0Historical Perspective / 111 6.1Basic Elements of Nuclear Science / 112 6.11The Atomic Nucleus / 113 6.12Isotopic Composition and Abundance / 113 6.13Atomic Mass / 114 6.14 k Equivalence of Mass and Energy / 115 6.15Binding Energy / 116 6.16Nuclear Stability / 118 6.17Types of Radioactive Decay / 119 6.18Properties of Radionuclides / 120 6.2Basic Elements of Nuclear Power / 121 6.21Nuclear Fission / 122 6.22Available Energy from Uranium Fuel / 123 6.23Nuclear Power Reactors / 125 6.24The Light-Water Uranium Fuel Cycle / 126 6.25Generation IV Nuclear Reactors / 129 6.26Nuclear Safety / 130 6.27Nuclear Waste / 131 6.3The Oklo Natural Nuclear Reactors on Earth / 132 6.4Thermonuclear Fusion / 133 6.5Summary / 135 References / 135 7 Renewable Energy Resources 137 7.0Renewable Energy / 137 7.01Types of Renewable Energy / 137 7.02Consumption of Renewable Energy / 138 7.1Hydroelectric Power / 140 7.2Solar Energy / 142 7.21The Solar Constant / 144 7.22Solar Energy Reserves / 145 7.23Solar Electricity / 146 7.3Wind Energy / 150 7.31Wind Power Rate / 153 7.32Wind Turbine Conversion Efficiency / 154 7.33The Wind Energy Resource / 156 7.34 Estimated Cost of Wind Power / 156 7.4 Biomass Energy / 158 7.41The Solar Biomass Resource / 159 7.42Biomass Conversion Processes / 160 7.43Environmental Aspects of Bioenergy Fuels / 161 7.5Other Renewable Resources / 163 7.51Tidal Energy / 163 7.52Geothermal Energy / 164 7.6Summary / 166 References / 167 8 Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier169 8.0Historical Perspective / 169 8.01Physical Nature of Hydrogen / 170 8.02Chemical Nature of Hydrogen / 171 8.03Energetics of Hydrogen / 173 8.1Hydrogen and Electricity as Parallel Energy Carriers / 173 8.11Why Hydrogen? / 173 8.12Competitive Uses for Hydrogen / 174 8.2The Hydrogen Energy Fuel Cycle / 175 8.21Hydrogen Production / 176 8.21a A Wee-Bit of Electrochemistry / 177 8.22Hydrogen Storage / 188 8.23Distribution of Hydrogen / 191 8.24End Uses for Hydrogen Fuel / 192 8.25Cost Factors of Hydrogen Fuel / 194 8.3Summary / 196 References / 198 9 Hydrogen as a Transportation Fuel 200 9.0Historical Perspective / 200 9.01Hydrogen Fuel in Aviation / 200 9.02Hydrogen Fuel in Marine Technology / 201 9.1Hydrogen Fuel Cells in Vehicle Transportation / 202 9.11Just What Is a Fuel Cell? / 202 9.12A Wee-Bit of Thermodynamics / 204 9.13Aspects of Hydrogen as a Transportation Fuel / 207 9.14Hydrogen Fuel Vehicles by Application Type / 208 9.2Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles / 209 9.21Characteristics of Alternative Fuels for Fuel Cells / 211 9.22Methanol as a Fuel for Fuel Cells / 212 9.23Natural Gas as a Transportation Fuel / 213 9.3What More Is Needed? / 214 9.4Summary / 215 References / 216 10 The Hydrogen Fuel Era 217 10.0Perspective on an Era / 217 10.1Potential for Air Quality Improvement / 218 10.11Emission Standards / 218 10.12Factors That Affect Vehicle Emissions / 220 10.13History of California Emission Standards / 221 10.2Modeling Health Benefit from Hydrogen Fuel Transportation / 222 10.21Model Development for the Three-City Hydrogen Air Quality Study / 223 10.22The Metropolitan Tokyo Air Quality Study / 226 10.3Electric Energy Requirement for Hydrogen Fuel / 230 10.31Extrapolation of Historical Transportation Fuel Data to 2010/231 10.32Growth of Demand for Hydrogen Fuel and Electric Energy: 2010-2050 / 234 10.4Prospects for the Future of a Sustainable Energy Supply / 236 10.41Potential Distribution of Energy Resources / 238 10.42Possibilities to Resolve the Impasse / 240 10.5Wrap-Up / 242 10.6Summary / 242 References / 242