CONTENTS Foreword ix Acknowledgements xi Introductionxiii 1. Climate change matters 1 Turning up the heat 2 Why is the present rapid warming happening? 7 The importance of delayed climate responses 1 0 Observed impacts 12 Trends in human vulnerability 15 Projections of future climate change 16 Facing the challenge 17 Conclusion 18 Endnotes 19 2. Learning from the past 23 Proxy data: clues from the past 24 The record of the ice ages 26 The causes of past climate change 27 Variations in the Earth's orbit 28 Role of greenhouse gases in amplifying climate changes 29 Variations in solar output 30 Volcanoes, cosmic collisions and aerosols 31 Rapid climate changes in the past 32 The last 10 000 years 35 Conclusions from the past record 37 Endnotes 39 3. Projecting the future 43 The need for, and nature of, foresight 43 Predictions, scenarios and projections 44 The emissions scenarios used by the IPCC 45 Projections of socio-economic futures 49 Forecasting the weather 51 Why climate projections are different 52 How good are climate models? 53 The state of climate projections 56 Endnotes 57 4. Uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain 59 Despite uncertainties, decisions have to be made 59 Uncertainty in climate change projections 60 From polarisation to probability and risk 63 Estimating risk 67 Uncertainty and the role of sceptics 69 Application of the 'precautionary principle' 73 Endnotes 74 5. What climate changes are likely? 77 Projected climate changes 78 Surface warming 80 Regional warmings 82 Precipitation and evaporation 82 Extreme events 84 Sea-level rise 87 Thresholds and abrupt or irreversible changes 93 Scenarios in a nutshell 97 Endnotes 99 6. Impacts : why be concerned? 107 Climate change impacts - reasons for concern 109 Thresholds and abrupt changes 110 Risks to unique and threatened systems 111 Risks from extreme climate events 115 Distribution of impacts 118 Aggregate impacts 121 Waking the sleeping giants 122 Effects of a breakdown in the ocean circulation 122 Rapid sea-level rise from melting ice sheets 124 Runaway carbon dynamics 125 Security implications 126 Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations 126 Growing reasons for concern 128 Endnotes 129 7. Adaptation: living with climate change 133 Adaptation concepts and strategies 133 Costs and benefits of adaptation 136 Implementation 137 Effects of different rates of climatic change 140 Equity issues in adaptation 141 Enhancing adaptive capacity 144 Endnotes 145 8. Mitigation: limiting climate change 149 Why mitigation is necessary 149 Targets : how much mitigation is needed? 150 Where we are now 157 How difficult is mitigation? 159 The looming peak in oil production 165 Mitigation options 167 Increased energy efficiency 167 Changes in infrastructure and behaviour 170 Fuel substitution 172 Nuclear power 174 Hydropower 176 Solar energy 177 Wind power 180 Biomass energy 182 Tidal and wave energy 186 Geothermal power 187 The hydrogen economy 188 Carbon capture and sequestration 190 Land-based carbon sinks 194 Geoengineering possibilities 197 Technological innovation: attitude is vital 201 The road to effective mitigation 202 Endnotes 206 9. Climate change in context 223 Surface air pollution and climate change 225 Stratospheric ozone depletion225 Land-use change, biodiversity, agriculture and forestry226 Land degradation and desertification227 Freshwater supply 227 Population growth 229 Synergies and trade-offs 231 Integration, sustainable development and equity 232 Postscript: connections between economic and climate crises 234 Endnotes 236 10. The politics of greenhouse 239 Is the science credible? 239 What about the uncertainty? 241 How realistic are the scenarios? 242 Choosing global and local emissions targets 243 How urgently do we need to act? 246 How much will reducing emissions cost? 247 Meeting targets most efficiently 249 International equity: what is fair? 254 The importance of equity within countries 260 Equity between generations 261 The role of governments and NGOs 262 What role should business take? 264 ihe role of state and local governments 268 So what are the politics of greenhouse? 270 Endnotes 271 11. International concern and national interests 277 A brief history 277 The Kyoto Protocol 280 National interests and climate change 282 African nations 283 Australia and New Zealand 284 China 289 European Union 291 India, Pakistan and Bangladesh 293 Latin America 295 The Russian Federation 296 Small Island States 298 United States of America 300 The common interest in global solutions 306 Endnotes 307 12. Accepting the challenge 317 Looking beyond the Kyoto Protocol 321 Addressing the key issues 324 Endnotes 326 Glossary (with acronyms) 329 Index 337