CONTENTS Glossary of Terms and Abbrevations 9 Executive Summary 13 1 Introduction 17 2 Climate change projections 21 IPCC projections 21 Primary effects and interactions 24 Pastures and livestock production 32 Industrial crops 33 3 Impacts and sensitivities in agriculture 37 Uncertainty issues 37 Estimates of global production, trade and food security 45 Impacts on food prices 50 Identifying vulnerable regions and socio-economic groups 52 Emerging case for immediate action 55 4 Adaptation 59 The scope of adaptation 59 Adaptation in agriculture observed 64 Estimating the costs and benefits of adaptation 68 The role for public policy in adaptation 70 Policy instruments for adaptation 73 5 Mitigation 79 Agriculture as a source of emissions 79 Agricultural emissions inventory 80 The economics of mitigation 81 Cost effectiveness and efficient mitigation 82 Mitigation measures 84 MACC exercises 85 Carbon budgeting in UK agriculture 86 Policy instruments for mitigation 90 Integrating mitigation and adaptation 93 7 Relevant climate research in other agencies 97 Future research needs 101 Valuation of climate change impact scenarios 101 The promotion of adaptation frameworks (based on cost-benefit analysis) 102 The development of marginal abatement cost modelling to develop emissions budgets 102 Research on the application of alternative voluntary and market-based instruments in relation to food and farming 103 Behaviours 104 Annex A 105 Other international institutions' activities 105 Country/regional activity 109 Academic institutions 1 14 Bibliography 117