CONTENTS Abstract 1 Acknowledgements 3 List of tables 7 List of figures 9 1.Introduction 11 1.1 Motivation/Problem Deiln it ion 13 1.2 Research Questions and Objectives 14 1.3 Methods and Tools 15 1.4 Significance of the study 16 1.5 Limitations of the study 16 1.6 Organization of the study 17 2 Literature Insights 19 2.1Definitions and Conceptual Interpretations of Vulnerability 19 2.1.1 Vulnerability to climate change 21 2.2 Vulnerability Assessment Frameworks, methods and approaches 23 2.3 Measuring Vulnerability 25 3 Study Area 27 3.1 Description of study area 28 3.2 Location 28 3.3 Agro-climatic Features 29 3.4 Climate change implications in I limachal Pradesh 29 3.5 Current Climatic Variability in I limachal Pradesh 30 3.5.1 Data and Methodology 31 3.5.2 Rainfall Variability 32 3.5.3 Temperature Variability 33 3.5.4 Climate Change - Climate Projections 34 4.Macro Vulnerability Assessment 37 4.1 Conceptualization of V LI I nerabi lily 37 4.2Conceptual Framework 37 4.3 Analytical I;rame\vork 38 4.4 Index approach to study Vulnerability 40 4.5 Methodology for Computing Vulnerability Index of Agriculture Sector in himachal Pradesh to Climate Variability. 40 4.6 Determinants and indicators of Vulnerability 42 4.7 Outcomes 46 4.8 Mapping and Analysis of Macro Vulnerability 49 4.8.1 Rxposure index 49 4.8.2 Sensitivity index 50 4.8.3 Adaptive capacity index 51 4.8.4 Vulnerability index 53 4.9 lindings and Outcomes 54 5 Micro Vulnerability Assessment 56 5.1 hervieu 56 5.2 Objectives 56 5.3 Methodology and Data Collection 57 5.4 Case study area 58 5.5 Climatic and Non climatic Stressors 59 5.6 Vulnerability Assessment 60 5.7 Community Perception Climate change and Variability 64 5.8 Household Level Adaptation 65 5.9 Findings clnd Outcomes 67 6 Discussion 70 References Bibliography 74 Appendix I Component Indicator values 75 Appendix II All districts mean rainfall trend (1901 -2002) 80