CONTENTS
SUMMARY 1
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 3
CHAPTER TWO BACKGROUND: FISCAL CRISES AND CHALLENGES TO TRANSPORTATION REVENUE
FORECASTING
Early Adoption of Highway User Fee Financing, 5
The Current Crisis in Surface Transportation Finance, 5
Devolving the Burden of Finance to the States, 7
Earlier Reviews of State Forecasting Practices, 8
CHAPTER THREE FEDERAL AND STATE REVENUE FORECASTING PRACTICES
Federal Highway Revenue Forecasting, 9 Short-Term vs. Long-Term Revenue Forecasting, 9
Traditional Sources,10
Distributions of Federal Funds, 10
State Motor Fuel Tax, 10
State Vehicle Registration Fees, 11
Revenue from Tolled Facilities, 11
State General Fund Allocations, 11
State Sales Taxes, 11
Local Taxes and Fees, 11
Other Sources, 11 Revenue Forecasting Methods, 11
Trend Extrapolation, 12
Expert Consensus, 12
Econometric Models, 12 Case Example: Washington, 13
Diesel Variables, 14
Independent Variables, 14
Gasoline Consumption Variables, 14
Demographic and Socioeconomic Variables for Econometric Analysis, 16
Accuracy and Shortcomings of Forecasting Methods, 16 Response to Policy Proposals, 16
CHAPTER FOUR INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS FOR STATE REVENUE FORECASTING State Departments of Transportation, 19
Other, Non-DOT Agencies, 19
Private Consultants, 19
Case Example: Proposed Revision to Missouri's Departmentof Transportation Forecasting Models, 19
Publication and Distribution of Results, 21
California Gas Tax Swap: A Unique Case, 22
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH Context for Transportation Revenue Forecasting, 24 Summary of Findings, 24
Suggestion for Future Research and Collaboration, 25
REFERENCES 27
APPENDIX A SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 29
APPENDIX B 33
SUMMARY OF SELECTED STATE PRACTICES Arizona, 34
California, 35
Michigan, 36
Minnesota, 37
Missouri, 38
Oregon, 39
Texas, 40
Washington, 41