CONTENTS
Acknowledgements v
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiv
Acronyms xv
Chapter-I: Introduction 1
1.1 Context 1
1.2 Development Trajectories for India 2
1.3 Framing the Development, Pollution and Climate Change Issues 5
1.4 The Co-benefits (associated co-costs and risks) Approach 6
1.5 Organization of the Book 10
Chapter-2: Historical Trends of Energy and Emissions 13
2.1 An Overview of India's National Circumstances 13
2.2 India's Energy Demand and Supply 15
2.2.1 Energy Efficiency 17
2.3 Energy Intensity of GDP 18
2.3.1 Sectoral Trends 20
2.3.2 GHG Emissions Intensity and PAT 22
2.3.3 State Level Trends 25
2.4 Non-CO2 GHG Emissions 25
2.4.1 Methane 25
2.4.2 Nitrous Oxides 26
2.5 Summary 27
Chapter-3: Policies and Measures 29
3.1 Introduction 29
3.2 Sectoral Development Policies 30
3.3 Initiatives at National and State Levels on Climate Change 40
3.3.1 National Solar Mission 41
3.3.2 National Mission on Sustainable Habitat 42
3.3.3 Mission on Sustainable Agriculture 42
3.3.4 National Water Mission 42
3.3.5 National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency 43
3.3.6 National Mission on Himalayan Ecosystem 44
3.3.7 National Mission on Green India 44
3.3.8 Mission on Strategic Knowledge 44
3.4 State Action Plans on Climate Change 45
3.5 Initiatives by the Current Government 45
3.6 Better Integration through a Co-Benefits Approach 47
Chapter-4: Local Pollution 48
4.1 The Nature of the Problem 49
4.2 Air Pollution Monitoring in India 50
4.3 Sources of Pollution 58
4.4 Policies to Curb Pollution in India 60
4.4.1 Transportation 60
4.4.2 Power Generation 63
4.4.3 Industry 63
4.5 A Holistic Approach to Air Pollution Control in India 63
Chapter-5: Energy Demand at Industry and Firm Levels 66
5.1 Power Sector 67
5.2 Iron and Steel Sector 68
5.3 Cement Sector 73
5.4 Refineries 74
5.5 Firm Level Emission Trends 77
5.6 Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) 79
5.6.1 Cluster Analysis 80
Chapter—6: Modelling Paradigms and Scenarios 85
6.1 Introduction 85
6.2 Modelling Paradigms 86
6.2.1 Top-Down Models 87
6.2.2 Bottom-Up Models 88
6.2.3 Model Characteristics, Objectives and Output 90
6.3 Integrated Assessment Models 95
6.4 Modelling Architecture 95
6.4.1 GCAM/IIM Model 95
6.4.2 Answer—MARKAL Model 96
6.4.3 End-Use Demand Model 96
6.4.4 AIM-ExSS Model 97
6.4.5 Strategic Databases (Socio-economic, Technical and Scientific Data) 97
6.5 Strengths and Limitations of Modelling Approaches 97
6.6 Soft Linking Top-Down and Bottom-Up Models 98
6.7 Back-Casting Framework 100
6.8 Scenarios 100
6.9 Policy Space 101
6.10 Summary 104
Chapter-7: Future Energy and Emissions Scenarios 105
7.1 Climate Scenarios 105
7.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios 106
7.3 Key Scenario Drivers 107
7.4 Scenarios 108
7.5 Modelling Results 110
7.5.1 Primary Energy Supply and Consumption 110
7.5.2 Electricity Generation Profile Ill
7.5.3 Indian CO2 Emission Projections 112
7.5.4 Sectoral CO2 Emissions 113
7.5.5 Energy Intensity of Economy 113
7.5.6 Carbon Intensity of Energy 114
7.5.7 Electricity Per Capita 115
7.5.8 Non CO2 GHG Emissions 115
7.6 Summary 116
Chapter-8: Tlie Way Forwards Aligning Mitigation with National Development 117
8.1 Policies and Measures 117
8.2 Emission Intensities for India under Different Growth Scenarios 117
8.3 Local Pollution 119
8.4 India and China: A Comparative Assessment 120
8.5 Target Development Pathway to Shape Emissions 125
8.6 Climate Negotiations and India 131
8.7 The Way Forward: Modelling to Prepare INDCs 136
References 139