CONTENTS List of Tables xi List of Figures xiii Acknowledgments xv Abstract xvii PART I.FRAMING AN EXTREME EVENT I. Policy Dynamics and Disaster 3 Public Policy Change and Innovation: A Fascination 3 Oakland and the Loma Prieta Disaster: A Thumbnail Sketch 5 The Oakland Nine 8 This Study's Organization 8 II. A Case Study Approach and an Amended Advocacy Coalition Framework 11 A Case Study Approach and Methodology 11 The Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) 13 The ACF and Guidance Instruments 15 The ACF and Exogenous Shocks 16 The ACF and Stable Parameters 17 The ACF and Policy Brokers 19 ACF Hypotheses 19 Policy Change Hypotheses 19 Accommodation Process Hypotheses 20 Policy Learning Hypotheses 20 Amending the ACF 21 III.Agenda Control, Non-Decision Making, California, and Seismic Safety 23 Democracy's Dark Side: Agenda Control 23 Pre-1933 Earthquake Safety in California : An Unconventional History 25 IV.Disasters, Guilty Knowledge, Policy Types, and Conflict Levels 29 Clarifying Terms: What is a Disaster Anyway? 29 Disaster Lessons and Guilty Knowledge 30 Some Buildings Just Can't Dance Policy Types and Levels of Conflict: The Second ACF Amendment 31 V.Previous Hazardous-Structure Abatement Studies (ACF-Reframed) 35 Two Studies, Four Cities 35 Alesch and Pe.tak 35 Olson, Olson, and Messinger 41 Conclusion 44 Policy Change Hypotheses 45 Accommodation Process Hypotheses 46 Policy Learning Hypotheses 47 PART II.CONTEXT AND CASE VI.Oakland and Seismic Safety-The Intergovernmental Context 51 Introduction 51 Earthquakes and Hazardous Buildings : Federal-Level Awareness 51 Earthquakes and Hazardous Buildings : State-Level Awareness 54 Key California Legislation 56 Conclusion 61 VII.Pre-Loma Prieta Oakland and the Un-Politics of URMS 63 A Thorny Problem: Causes of Inaction 63 Oakland's Inaction 64 Complying with SB 547: Only the Letter, Thank You 67 Was It or Wasn't It? 74 VIII.Event Response and the First Three Ordinances 81 Screaming Buildings and Rubble Rising : A Traumatized City (and City Government) 81 Repeat After Us: Scope and Standards (and Variances) 84 The Emergency Order and Ordinance 11173 85 Ordinance 11173: The Politics 88 Forming The Coalition 90 (or Everybody inside the Tent or at the Table, Please) Historic Preservationists 98 Values in Competition99 The Result: Making the Emergency Ordinance Permanent (But Different), Ordinance 11217 102 The Emergency versus the Permanent Ordinance: An Assessment 105 Refining by Omitting: The Clever Third Ordinance 106 The First Three Ordinances: Review 109 IX.Ordinances Four Through Eight-and a Singularly Important RFP 111 Two Tracks: Damaged Buildings and URMs 111 Stopgaps 112 The First Voluntary Ordinance: 11274 113 Pressure from the Affluent: Ordinance 11291 114 Addressing the URM Problem: A Request for Proposals 116 A Flopped Amnesty Ordinance: 11333 117 City Staff and Preservationists versus (a Few) Owners: Ordinance 11359 118 Patience Runs Out: The Mandatory Abatement Ordinance 11436 120 Oakland's Damaged Buildings Problem: The Final Outcome 126 X.The Final Act, the URM Ordinance 129 Setting the Menu: The March 1993 Consultants' Report 129 The Technical Base 129 Two Policy Options 131 Socioeconomic Analysis and (Please, More) Policy Options 136 Tradeoffs: The Last Chapter 138 The L'RM Ordinance: The Intra-Coalition Politics 140 Going Formal 146 The Result: Ordinance 11613 147 Implementing 11613: No , No Program 150 In the End, Surprisingly Effective 154 PART III. CONCLUSION XI.Interesting, but What Does it All Mean? The Oakland Case and the Advocacy Coalition Framework 159 In Harm's Way 159 Two General Observations 160 The ACF 161 Policy Change Hypotheses 163 Accommodation Process Hypotheses 165 Policy Learning Hypotheses 167 A Final Word 169