CONTENTS MESSAGE from KER1 President v Message from N1CEE vii Foreword ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii Symbols xvii 1 Introduction 1 2 Methodology 5 2.1 Overview 5 2.2 Definitions 6 2.3 PSHAfora Specific Site 11 2.4 Translating Hazard into Risk 17 2.5 Seismic Risk Analysis fora Group of Sites 20 3 Seismicity and Properties of Earthquake Sources 25 3.1 Seismic Sources 25 3.2 Earthquake Magnitude and Magnitude Scales 32 3.3 Magnitude Distributions 35 3.4 Stress Drop and Seismic Moment 56 3.5 Earthquake Occurrences in Time 63 3.6 Fault Rupture Characteristics 64 3.7 Intensity 65 4 Estimating Earthquake Ground Motion 71 4.1 Importance of Earthquake Shaking 71 4.2 Empirical Ground Motion Equations 74 4.3 Stochastic Methods of Estimating Ground Motion 91 4.4 Ground Motion Uncertainties 98 5 Seismic Hazard Analysis 105 5.1 Introduction 105 5.2 Basic Seismic Hazard Calculations 106 5.3 Anatomy of Fault Ha/ard 108 5.4 Anatomy of Hazard from Area Sources 125 5.5 Logic Trees 135 5.6 Effect of Local Site Conditions 137 5.7 Observations 141 6 Estimating Seismic Risk 143 6.1 Introduction 143 6.2 Empirical Methods ofDamage Estimation 145 6.3 Analytic al Methods ofDamage Estimation 153 6.4 Comparisons ofDamage Estimates 161 6.5 Integrating Seismic Hazard to Seismic Risk 163 6.6 Other Losses 172 6.7 Summary of Seismic Risk 176 6.8 Final Thoughts 177 References 179 Appendix A: Derivation of ft and Rate for the Exponential Magnitude Distribution for Data with Unequal Periods of Completeness 189 Appendix B: Alternative Magnitude Distributions 193 Appendix C: MMI Scale of 1931 197 Appendix D: Stochastic Methods of Estimating Ground Motion 203 Appendix E; Reta Distribution Plots 213 Appendix F: Derivation of Risk Equation 219