CONTENTS Acknowledgments xv MEMORANDUM TO A CONCERNED FINANCE MINISTER xix Overview 1.Fluctuating Deaths, Rising Damages- the Numbers 23 3.3 million deaths in the 40 years to 2010 26 Disasters can strike anywhere 27 Damages arc rising 27 More so in rich countries, less in poor 27 Small island economies are hit hard 29 Deaths expand Africa-damages shrink it 31 Multiple hazards, clustering in different ways 32 Spotlight 1 on Bangladesh: The antecedents of lives saved 34 2.Measuring Disasters' Many Effects 41 Individuals over the edge 43 Conflicts: Cause or consequence? 48 Welfare falls, but what are the effects on output? And for how long? 52 Aggregate and sectoral effects on economic output and growth in the long term 54 Measuring the damage: Twice over and half under? 57 Spotlight 2 on Turkey: Where civilizations and tectonic plates met 64 3. Prevention by Individuals 69 Prevention, insurance, and coping: A simple framework 70 Prevention: Do individuals do enough? 72 Prices reflect hazard tisks when land and real estate markets work 76 Improving individuals' decisions: What can governments do? 84 Spotlight 3 on Haiti: Preventing Haiti's horrors99 4 Prevention through Governments 105 How much do governments spend? 106 Who really decides government spending? 110 How to improve collective prevention measures 115 Spotlight 4 on Ethiopia: Deaths from droughts or Derg? 134 5 Insurance and Coping 141 Insurance: Useful it the premium is priced right 143 Should governments borrow, set aside funds, or buy insurance? 148 Quick and direct help tor families 154 Spotlight 5 on the 2004 Tsunami: Warnings: The most effective prevention? 16439 6. Coming Game-Changers? Burgeoning Cities, Climate Change, and Climate-induced Catastrophes 169 Cities: Rising exposure 170 Climate change: Changing hazards, changing damages 174 Climate-related catastrophes: Deep-future disasters with a global footprint 181 Connecting the three Cs: Cities, climate, catastrophes 186 MEMORANDUM TO A CONCERNED CITIZEN 191 Notes and References 199 Index 239