Contents Preface ix Disclaimer xiii Acknowledgments xv About the Authors xvii Part I: Market Analysis and Forecasts 1 Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Real Estate Market 3 Tim Wang and David Lynn Chapter 2: Forecasting the U.S. Market 19 David Lynn Chapter 3: Recession Simulation and its Effects on Real Estate 25 Tim Wang, Alison Sauer, David Lynn Chapter 4: Subprime Fallout: The Impact on Commercial Real Estate 41 Tim Wang and David Lynn Chapter 5: Capital Markets: Dramatic Shifts and Opportunities 47 David Lynn and Tim Wang Chapter 6: The Bid-Ask Problem and Game Theory 53 Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, David Lynn Part II: Active Strategies 67 Chapter 7: Residential Land Investment 69 Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn Chapter 8: The U.S. Hotel Market and Strategy 103 Tim Wang, Matson Holbrook, David Lynn Chapter 9: Global Gateway Industrial Market Investment 125 Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn Chapter 10: The Opportunity in Senior Housing 159 Tim Wang and David Lynn Chapter 11: Active Portfolio Management Using Modern Portfolio Theory 187 David Lynn and Yusheng Hao Chapter 12: Derivatives in Private Equity Real Estate 217 Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, David Lynn Chapter 13: Opportunities in Infrastructure Investment 239 David Lynn and Matson Holbrook Appendix A Typical Land Development Pro Forma Analysis - Three Scenarios 247 Appendix B U. S. Hotel Chain Scales 253 Appendix C Modern Portfolio Theory in Real Estate Portfolio Analytics257 Appendix D Commercial Real Estate Indexes259 Appendix E Example NPI Forecast Methodology263 Selected Bibliography 265 Index267