CONTENTS Preface v List of Contributors xi List of Participants xiii List of Figures xv List of Tables xvii Introduction xix CHAPTER 1 MARITIME TRAFFIC AND THE WORLD ECONOMY Hilde Meersman 1 The drivers behind port throughput 1 2 Some evolutions in economic activity, trade and maritime traffic 4 2.1 Economic growth and international trade 4 2.2 Maritime trade and port activity 11 3 Future uncertainties 14 4 Some scenarios for the future 20 5 Conclusion 25 CHAPTER 2THE FUTURE OF SHIPS AND SHIPBUILDING -A LOOK INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL Hans Hopman and Ubald Nienhuis 1 Introduction 27 2 Supply and demand of shipbuilding capacity 29 3 Technological advances in shipbuilding 32 4 Delivery times 35 5 Trans-shipment facilities 36 6 Reliability, safety and security 38 7 Emissions 39 8 Size of ship 42 9 Fuel and propulsion 45 10 Scenarios 48 10.1 Grey crisis 50 10.2 Green growth 50 11 Conclusion 52 CHAPTER 3FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN PORTS Enrico Musso 1 Setting the scene: a technological and economic revolution in ports 53 1.1 The maturity and sustainability of port industry 55 2 The value of ports 56 2.1 Plenty of definitions .. 56 2.2 . . . and some ambiguities 57 2.3 Geographical scale of impacts 58 2.4 Employment, added value, land use and collective resources 59 3 Risks of demaritimisation, port performance and public policies 60 3.1 The nightmare of demaritimisation 60 3.2 Fighting port decline-a new concept of port performance 61 3.3 Private and social issues at stake: lessons for public policies 62 4 Designing new strategies in a complex scenario 63 4.1 Some insight on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats 63 4.2 Guidelines for future strategies 64 4.2.1 Strategy 1: To promote better land use and governance 64 4.2.2 Strategy 2: To promote more and better jobs in a durable port industry 65 4.2.3 Strategy 3: To balance different local effects of ports 66 5 Conclusion 66 CHAPTER 4GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGES AND THE FUTURE OF PORT AUTHORITIES Antonio Estache and Lourdes Trujillo 1 Introduction 69 2 What exactly are today's port authorities? 70 3 The global drivers of change for port authorities 74 4 What the global changes imply for ports 76 4.1 Increased trade and specialization 76 4.2 Increased concern for the environment 77 4.3 Increased concern for security 79 4.4 Emerging business environment issues 80 4.5 Emerging institutional issues 81 4.6 Emerging transport operational changes 82 5 The challenges facing port authorities 83 6 The future look of PAs 85 7 Conclusion 87 CHAPTER 5THE ECONOMIC FABRIC OF PORTS Hilde Meersman, Eddy Van de Voorde and Thierry Vanelslander 1 Introduction 89 2 The structure and organisation of ports 90 2.1 What purposes does a modern port serve? 90 2.2 Organisation and management structure of a port 92 3 Quantifying the port structure 94 3.1 Relationships with customers 94 3.2 Relationships with suppliers 95 3.3 Relationships between (Antwerp) port actors: a number of conclusions 96 3.4 Relationships with non-port actors and with port actors outside the port area 99 4 Outline of a future perspective 100 4.1 Extrapolation of the Antwerp relationships 100 4.2 Relationships among and between port and non-port actors in the future 103 5 Conclusion 106 CHAPTER 6BOTTLENECKS OF EFFICIENCY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PORT BUSINESS Rosario Macario and Jose Viegas 1 Introduction 109 2 Hinterland bottlenecks 110 3 Strategic marketing to overcome hidden bottlenecks 114 4 Stakeholders as key partners for strategic marketing 120 5 Risk factors in port performance 121 6 Conclusion 124 CHAPTER 7DEVELOPMENTS AND ISSUES IN SHIPPING FINANCE Costas Th. Grammenos 1 Introduction 127 2 Freight rates and returns 128 3 Shipbuilding finance in the post-war period 129 4 Lessons of the shipping crisis of the 1980s 131 5 Public equity issues 133 6 German KG and Norwegian KS Limited Partnership 136 7 High-yield bond issues 138 8 Leasing 139 9 Islamic finance 140 10 Conclusion 141 CHAPTER 8SCENARIOS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE PORT AND SHIPPING SECTOR Hilde Meersman, Eddy Van de Voorde and Thierry Vanelslander 1 Economic activity and international trade: the source of maritime trade and port activity 145 2 Acknowledging the relationship between technology and the economy 149 3 Anticipating greater port competition 151 4 A new role for the port authorities 152 5 Ports: a multi-actor playing field 155 6 Accessibility of the hinterland 156 7 Growth and funding requirements 157 8 Proposed action plan 158 List of References 161 Index 171