Global risk / global opportunity the essential tools for tracking minds, markets and money
Maital, Shlomo
Global risk / global opportunity the essential tools for tracking minds, markets and money - New Delhi Response Books 2010 - 361p.,DVD
CONTENTS List of Tables 11 List of Figures 12 Lisf of Boxes 14 List of Action Learning Exercises 15 List of Case Studies 16 Foreword by Peeyush Gupta 18 To the Reader 20 Acknowledgements 29 Introduction: Two Tales 32 1Global crisis 2007-2009: Risks and opportunities 34 Minds, Markets, and Money 35 Tracking Minds-Tipping Point Analysis 38 Systems Thinking 40 The Role of History 45 Relevance, Timeliness, and Topicality 46 Tracking Money and Markets: How Solving One Crisis Created Another47 Global Crisis 2007: Cause-and-Effect 48 Understanding the 2007 Capital Market Collapse 51 On the Vital Need for Managerial Resilience 59 Global Opportunities 64 2 What is your story? How to build powerful global narratives 66 Introduction: Jorma Ollila, Global Manager 67 Fall of the Wall and the Rise of Nokia 67 Teleology: Global Cause-and-Effect 69 What is your Story? 70 GELT-Geopolitics, Economics, Lifestyle, Technology 71 The 8-Step GELT Method 72 Closing the Circle: Linking 2008 to 1944 92 Global Risk: Taxonomy or Ecology? 93 Risk management with telescopes and microscopes 95 Introduction 96 What Value is at Risk? 98 Blink: Thinking without Thinking 101 Systemic Risk: Harnessing Systems Thinking 103 How Bubbles and Booms turn into Busts and Collapse 105 Learning Systems Thinking from Leonardo da Vinci 108 Conclusion 110 Appendix: The Value of Value-at-Risk-A Cautionary Tale of Risk in Faulty Management no Epilogue 121 A country is a business 122 Introduction 123 The Failure of Economic Forecasts 124 US GDP Shrinks 125 Sources and Uses of Resources 133 The Law of Conservation of Resources 135 Present-oriented or Future-oriented? 141 Present-Future Orientation 141 GDP: What is Produced; Final Sales: What is Sold 142 Growth Dividend 144 Building Your Own Forecast 146 Conclusion 148 Appendix: For those Fond of Maths and Symbols Rather than Words 148 Analyzing engines of growth 151 Introduction: Grow or Die 151 Physical and Human Capital 154 Gross and Net Investment 155 Net Investment and Domestic Saving 158 Foreign Saving and Foreign Investment 159 From Ant to Grasshopper 160 Capacity Growth 162 Global Imbalance 163 Analyzing Growth Engines: Supply Side 167 Analyzing Growth Engines: Demand Side 170 Building Your Own Forecast 176 Linking Macro to Micro 177 Conclusion 177 Appendix: For those Fond of Maths and Symbols Rather than Words 178 Money talks-Interest rates listen 181 Introduction 182 What is Money? 183 What is Interest? 184 Financial Deregulation and the Changing Nature of Money 185 How Central Banks Create Money and Lower Interest Rates187 Theory and Practice 190 Much Money, But No Inflation 193 How Money Speaks to the Economy-and to GDP 195 Linking Money with Interest Rates 200 Interest Rates: Get Real 202 Why Managers must Get Real in Judging Interest Rates 205 Every Economy is an Ecology: The Four-Markets Model 207 The Market for Goods and the Market for Money 210 Conclusion 213 Appendix: The Credit Multiplier 214 Tracking booms and busts 216 Introduction 217 What Causes Booms and Busts? 221 Toward a Grounded Theory of Boom-Bust Cycles 225 The Crucial Role of the Consumer 226 Fiscal Suicide or Criminal Complacency? 230 Animal Spirits 232 The Twin Deficits as Boom-Bust Drivers 236 Boom-Bust Cycles and the Stock Market 240 From Bull Market to Bear Market and Back to Bull Market: 1955-2000 242 Common Stocks: Get Real! 244 A Short History of Stock Prices 247 May the (Two) Forces Be With You 248 Tracing the Footprints: Knowing your P's and Q's 250 Tracking Stocks through Price-Earnings Multiples 252 Conclusion 257 8Tracking trade and forex 258 Introduction 259 Competitiveness, Trade, and Wealth 262 A Country is a Business: Dollar Cash Flow 263 Anatomy of America's Balance of Payments 266 World Trade Network: Who Trades with Whom? 269 Is International Trade Always Win-Win? 271 Inside Foreign Exchange 272 The Global Foreign Exchange Market: USD 1.6-USD 1.9 Trillion a Day 275 China's Business Model: In Search of the True Renminbi 280 Purchasing Power Exchange Rates 281 Judging Market Size 283 Why do the Value of Currencies Deviate from PPP? 286 Exchange Rates: Fixed or Floating? 287 Conclusion 290 9 Non-economic risks 291 Introduction 292 Political Risk 293 Managing Political Risk 302 Risks of Terrorism 304 Environmental Risks 312 Best Practices in Risk Management 325 Other Non-Economic Risks 327 Conclusion 330 10 Country due diligence: Integrating the ten tools 331 Introduction 331 Risk Awareness 337 Checklist for Country Due Diligence Analysis 338 Beyond Macroeconomics 342 Global Paradigm Shift: Transforming Risk into Opportunity 343 Conclusion 350 Appendix: Helpful Resources-Where to Find the Data You Need 351 Index 354 About the Authors 362
8132104439
658.155 / MAI
Global risk / global opportunity the essential tools for tracking minds, markets and money - New Delhi Response Books 2010 - 361p.,DVD
CONTENTS List of Tables 11 List of Figures 12 Lisf of Boxes 14 List of Action Learning Exercises 15 List of Case Studies 16 Foreword by Peeyush Gupta 18 To the Reader 20 Acknowledgements 29 Introduction: Two Tales 32 1Global crisis 2007-2009: Risks and opportunities 34 Minds, Markets, and Money 35 Tracking Minds-Tipping Point Analysis 38 Systems Thinking 40 The Role of History 45 Relevance, Timeliness, and Topicality 46 Tracking Money and Markets: How Solving One Crisis Created Another47 Global Crisis 2007: Cause-and-Effect 48 Understanding the 2007 Capital Market Collapse 51 On the Vital Need for Managerial Resilience 59 Global Opportunities 64 2 What is your story? How to build powerful global narratives 66 Introduction: Jorma Ollila, Global Manager 67 Fall of the Wall and the Rise of Nokia 67 Teleology: Global Cause-and-Effect 69 What is your Story? 70 GELT-Geopolitics, Economics, Lifestyle, Technology 71 The 8-Step GELT Method 72 Closing the Circle: Linking 2008 to 1944 92 Global Risk: Taxonomy or Ecology? 93 Risk management with telescopes and microscopes 95 Introduction 96 What Value is at Risk? 98 Blink: Thinking without Thinking 101 Systemic Risk: Harnessing Systems Thinking 103 How Bubbles and Booms turn into Busts and Collapse 105 Learning Systems Thinking from Leonardo da Vinci 108 Conclusion 110 Appendix: The Value of Value-at-Risk-A Cautionary Tale of Risk in Faulty Management no Epilogue 121 A country is a business 122 Introduction 123 The Failure of Economic Forecasts 124 US GDP Shrinks 125 Sources and Uses of Resources 133 The Law of Conservation of Resources 135 Present-oriented or Future-oriented? 141 Present-Future Orientation 141 GDP: What is Produced; Final Sales: What is Sold 142 Growth Dividend 144 Building Your Own Forecast 146 Conclusion 148 Appendix: For those Fond of Maths and Symbols Rather than Words 148 Analyzing engines of growth 151 Introduction: Grow or Die 151 Physical and Human Capital 154 Gross and Net Investment 155 Net Investment and Domestic Saving 158 Foreign Saving and Foreign Investment 159 From Ant to Grasshopper 160 Capacity Growth 162 Global Imbalance 163 Analyzing Growth Engines: Supply Side 167 Analyzing Growth Engines: Demand Side 170 Building Your Own Forecast 176 Linking Macro to Micro 177 Conclusion 177 Appendix: For those Fond of Maths and Symbols Rather than Words 178 Money talks-Interest rates listen 181 Introduction 182 What is Money? 183 What is Interest? 184 Financial Deregulation and the Changing Nature of Money 185 How Central Banks Create Money and Lower Interest Rates187 Theory and Practice 190 Much Money, But No Inflation 193 How Money Speaks to the Economy-and to GDP 195 Linking Money with Interest Rates 200 Interest Rates: Get Real 202 Why Managers must Get Real in Judging Interest Rates 205 Every Economy is an Ecology: The Four-Markets Model 207 The Market for Goods and the Market for Money 210 Conclusion 213 Appendix: The Credit Multiplier 214 Tracking booms and busts 216 Introduction 217 What Causes Booms and Busts? 221 Toward a Grounded Theory of Boom-Bust Cycles 225 The Crucial Role of the Consumer 226 Fiscal Suicide or Criminal Complacency? 230 Animal Spirits 232 The Twin Deficits as Boom-Bust Drivers 236 Boom-Bust Cycles and the Stock Market 240 From Bull Market to Bear Market and Back to Bull Market: 1955-2000 242 Common Stocks: Get Real! 244 A Short History of Stock Prices 247 May the (Two) Forces Be With You 248 Tracing the Footprints: Knowing your P's and Q's 250 Tracking Stocks through Price-Earnings Multiples 252 Conclusion 257 8Tracking trade and forex 258 Introduction 259 Competitiveness, Trade, and Wealth 262 A Country is a Business: Dollar Cash Flow 263 Anatomy of America's Balance of Payments 266 World Trade Network: Who Trades with Whom? 269 Is International Trade Always Win-Win? 271 Inside Foreign Exchange 272 The Global Foreign Exchange Market: USD 1.6-USD 1.9 Trillion a Day 275 China's Business Model: In Search of the True Renminbi 280 Purchasing Power Exchange Rates 281 Judging Market Size 283 Why do the Value of Currencies Deviate from PPP? 286 Exchange Rates: Fixed or Floating? 287 Conclusion 290 9 Non-economic risks 291 Introduction 292 Political Risk 293 Managing Political Risk 302 Risks of Terrorism 304 Environmental Risks 312 Best Practices in Risk Management 325 Other Non-Economic Risks 327 Conclusion 330 10 Country due diligence: Integrating the ten tools 331 Introduction 331 Risk Awareness 337 Checklist for Country Due Diligence Analysis 338 Beyond Macroeconomics 342 Global Paradigm Shift: Transforming Risk into Opportunity 343 Conclusion 350 Appendix: Helpful Resources-Where to Find the Data You Need 351 Index 354 About the Authors 362
8132104439
658.155 / MAI